Bitcoin metrics ‘improve bullish odds’ as BTC price holds 200-week trendline


Bitcoin (BTC) continues to hold key support which new analysis says “improves bullish probabilities.”

In an X thread on Oct. 17, Caleb Franzen, senior analyst at Cubic Analytics, drew attention to two moving averages now forming the BTC price battleground.

Analysis: Enduring Bitcoin support “a great sign”

Bitcoin is wedged between the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) and 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

BTC/USD 1-week chart with 200-week SMA, EMA. Source: TradingView

At $28,277 and $25,744 respectively as of Oct. 18, the two trendlines have formed support and resistance since mid-August.

For Franzen, this is an important feature to note on weekly timeframes, and constitutes one of several encouraging characteristics of the BTC/USD chart.

“One of the reasons why I’ve stayed patient with $BTC, even though I’ve leaned defensive, is that price has been trying to use the 200-week moving average cloud as support,” part of one post read.

It added that bulls successfully holding the 200-week EMA was a “great sign.”

Franzen additionally cited the short-term holder realized price (STHRP) — the aggregate on-chain price at which coins owned by younger investors last moved.

Currently around $26,900, much attention has been given to the metric in 2023 thanks to its ability to act as market support.

“Price is breaking above the STHRP, which is a key characteristic of an uptrend & it has a history of acting as dynamic support,” the thread continued, alongside data from on-chain analytics resource ChainExposed.

“This improves bullish odds.”

Bitcoin short-term holder realized price (STHRP) chart (screenshot). Source: ChainExposed

Franzen was quick to note that despite the signals, there was no suggestion that BTC price action would make bull market-style gains as a result.

“On the aggregate, these indicators show us that constructive dynamics are taking place and improving bullish probabilities,” he explained.

“They don’t mean number go up. They mean that good things are happening.”

BTC price cycle deja vu strikes

The findings chime with other recent investigations into Bitcoin on-chain behavior.

Related: BTC price models hint at $130K target after 2024 Bitcoin halving

As Cointelegraph reported, BTC/USD remains up around 6% this week, despite snap volatility briefly disturbing market conditions.

As network fundamentals surge to new all-time highs, anticipation is building over what could follow for BTC price action as it heads toward the April 2024 block subsidy halving.

Among the more vocal optimists is popular social media trader Moustache, who this week continued to compare Bitcoin’s 2023 performance with that of 2020

An illustrative chart uploaded to X matches the COVID-19 cross-market crash in March 2020 with Bitcoin’s two-year lows post-FTX meltdown seen at the end of 2022.

“Still looks textbook, doesn’t it?” part of accompanying commentary argued, querying whether a “big move” could soon result.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Moustache/X

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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